How to read implied probability on Polymarket

A Polymarket share price of $0.68 means the market is pricing that outcome at roughly 68%, before fees. Multiply the share price by 100 to get the implied percentage.

To compare that against a sportsbook, convert the decimal odds the same way: divide 1 by the decimal price, then multiply by 100. A 1.85 decimal price becomes roughly 54%. Line the two numbers up side by side and the gap between them — not either number alone — is the signal worth paying attention to.

Why the gap matters

Prediction markets settle against real-world outcomes with continuous trading, so their price reflects the current consensus of everyone willing to put capital behind an opinion. Sportsbook odds bake in a margin on top of their own model. When the two disagree by more than a couple of points, it's worth asking whether one side has stale information — or whether one of them is simply less liquid.